TEHRAN - Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines, and Agriculture (ICCIMA) has released the country’s new PMI data for the fiscal month of Esfand (February 19 – March 20, 2025) which has posted a fourth drop in a row.

The decline in the PMI reading takes place despite expectations for an uptick in demand ahead of the country’s New Year holidays, with the index remaining below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction.

The seasonally adjusted PMI (48.7) is indicative of continued fall in production, new orders and raw material inventory although it fell less sharply compared to 46.4 reported in the preceding month. 

Seasonal adjustment, or depersonalization, is a statistical method used to remove the seasonal component from a time series, allowing for the independent analysis of trends and cyclical deviations. After preparing dozens of PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) reports, the Research Center of Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines, and Agriculture has now identified the seasonal components of these time series and prioritized seasonal adjustment in its monthly PMI reports.

The Statistics and Economic Analysis Center of Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture, the sponsor and coordinator of the survey, announces the whole economy PMI data in a report every month.

The headline PMI is a number from 0 to 100, such that over 50 shows an expansion of the economy when compared with the previous month. A PMI reading under 50 indicates contraction and a reading of 50 implies no change.

PMI is an index of the prevailing direction of economic trends, aiming to provide information about business conditions to company directors, analysts and purchasing managers.

In the month under review, main sub-indexes such as business activities, new orders, raw material inventory, and unemployment were declining, while suppliers’ delivery time had increased.

The Iran Chamber of Commerce said in its report that the shrinking PMI was largely caused by foreign exchange fluctuations, rising costs of production, shortage of liquidity, and decrease in consumer purchasing power.

Moreover, the restriction of production due to rising business costs and energy imbalances has led to a decline in employment. At the same time, the mismatch between wages and the cost of living has resulted in a reduced labor supply.

EF/